AAA projects record travel for Independence Day
PORTLAND, Ore., – Gas prices are rising in 40 states this week as 71 million Americans including 862,000 Oregonians travel for the 4th of July holiday. Oregon and other West Coast states continue to see pump prices decline for now. Those driving to their Independence Day destinations will find the cheapest gas prices for the holiday in three years. However, rising crude oil prices and hurricane season, with Hurricane Beryl in the Caribbean, have the potential to send pump prices higher. For the week, the national average for regular adds three cents to $3.50. The Oregon average loses three cents to $4.05 a gallon.
“Gas prices are at their lowest prices for the 4th of July holiday in three years. Oregon and other West Coast states are seeing significant savings at the pump this year compared to last year. However, we could see pump prices rise in the short-term. Forecasters are keeping a close eye on Hurricane Beryl. Any storm that hits the Gulf of Mexico can disrupt drilling and refining. And AAA expects record-setting travel this week for the 4th of July which means robust demand for gas,” says Marie Dodds, public affairs director for AAA Oregon/Idaho.
AAA projects 70.9 million Americans including 862,000 Oregonians will travel 50 miles or more from home over the week of July 4th. Find all the details, graphics, top destinations, best and worst times to drive, and tips for travelers in the AAA Independence Day travel news release.
The national and Oregon averages are at the same prices as they were in March. This week, 16 Oregon counties have averages below $4 per gallon, up from four a week ago:
Baker $3.90
Benton $3.81
Deschutes $3.88
Douglas $3.96
Gilliam $3.90
Jefferson $3.86
Lane $3.85
Lincoln $3.85
Linn $3.84
Malheur $3.84
Marion $3.98
Morrow $3.95
Polk $3.94
Sherman $3.98
Umatilla $3.88
Yamhill $3.99
The Oregon average began 2024 at $3.79 a gallon compared to $4.05 today. Its lowest price so far this year is $3.58 on February 14 and the highest is nearly $4.51 on May 1. The national average started the year at $3.11 and is at $3.50 today. Its lowest price so far this year is just under $3.07 on January 15 and the highest is just under $3.68 on April 19.
Gas prices are often fairly steady during the summer months, barring hurricanes, supply disruptions and/or geo-political events. Gas prices always rise starting in late winter through the spring as refineries undergo maintenance as the switch to summer-blend fuel occurs. The switch occurs first in California, which is why pump prices on the West Coast often rise before other parts of the country. The East Coast is the last major market to make the change to summer-blend fuel. Most areas have a May 1 compliance date for refiners and terminals, while most gas stations have a June 1 deadline to switch to selling summer-blend until June 1. Switch-over dates are earlier in California with some areas in the state requiring summer-blend fuel by April 1. Some refineries will begin maintenance and the switchover as early as February.
Crude oil prices this week have climbed to their highest prices since mid April They have remained volatile due to geopolitical events around the world including the war between Israel and Hamas, the war between Russia and Ukraine, and Houthi militant attacks in the Red Sea. In addition, production cuts by OPEC+ have tightened global crude oil supplies. OPEC+ met on June 2 and, as expected, the cartel will extend production cuts into the third quarter.
The price of crude oil reached the year-to-date high of nearly $87 per barrel on April 5. West Texas Intermediate climbed above $80 on March 14 and above $85 on April 2, then dipped below $85 starting on April 17 and below $80 again on May 1. WTI rose above $80 per barrel again on June 17 and has remained above $80 since then. Major drivers of elevated crude prices are the unrest in the Middle East, the decision by OPEC+ to keep oil production cuts in place, and Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries. Russia is a top global oil producer and the refinery attacks have reduced output.
Crude prices have been volatile after the attack on Israel by Hamas in October. While Israel and the Palestinian territory are not oil producers, concerns remain that the conflict could spread in the Middle East, which could potentially impact crude production in other oil-producing nations in the region.
Crude oil is trading around $83 today compared to $81 a week ago and $70 a year ago. In 2023, West Texas Intermediate ranged between $63 and $95 per barrel. Crude reached recent highs of $123.70 on March 8, 2022, shortly after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and $122.11 per barrel on June 8, 2022. The all-time high for WTI crude oil is $147.27 in July 2008.
Crude oil is the main ingredient in gasoline and diesel, so pump prices are impacted by crude prices on the global markets. On average, about 54% of what we pay for in a gallon of gasoline is for the price of crude oil, 15% is refining, 18% distribution and marketing, and 14% are taxes, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Demand for gasoline in the U.S. fell from 9.39 million b/d to 8.96 million b/d for the week ending June 21, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). This compares to 9.31 million b/d a year ago. Meanwhile, total domestic gasoline stocks rose from 231.2 to 233.9 million barrels.
Tepid gasoline demand and increasing supply may help counter higher oil costs, slowing any rise in pump prices.
Quick stats
Oregon is one of 10 states with lower prices now than a week ago. Nebraska (+13 cents) has the largest week-over-week increase. Arizona (-3 cents) and Oregon (-3 cents) have the biggest weekly drops in the nation.
California ($4.79) has the most expensive gas in the nation for the 18th week in a row. This is the fourth week in a row that the California average has been below $5 per gallon. Hawaii ($4.70) is second, Washington ($4.31) is third, Oregon ($4.05) is fourth, and Nevada ($4.04) is fifth. These are the five states with averages at or above $4 a gallon, same as a week ago. This week 44 states and the District of Columbia have averages in the $3-range. There is one state with averages in the $2 range this week.
The cheapest gas in the nation is in Mississippi ($2.96) and Louisiana ($3.03). No state has had an average below $2 a gallon since January 7, 2021, when Mississippi and Texas were below that threshold.
The difference between the most expensive and least expensive states is $1.83 this week, compared to $1.89 a week ago.
Oregon is one of 31 states and the District of Columbia with lower prices now than a month ago. The national average is four cents less and the Oregon average is 19 cents less than a month ago. This is the sixfth-largest month-over-month decline in the nation. Alaska (-30 cents) and California (-26 cents) have the largest monthly drops. Ohio (+13 cents) has the largest month-over-month increase. The average in North Carolina is flat.
Oregon is one of 35 states and the District of Columbia with lower prices now than a year ago. The national average is three cents less and the Oregon average is 58 cents less than a year ago. This is the second-largest year-over-year drop in the nation. Washington (-68 cents) has the largest yearly decrease. Ohio (+20 cents) has the largest year-over-year increase.
West Coast
The West Coast region continues to have the most expensive pump prices in the nation with six of the seven states in the top 10. It’s typical for the West Coast to have six or seven states in the top 10 as this region tends to consistently have fairly tight supplies, consuming about as much gasoline as is produced. In addition, this region is located relatively far from parts of the country where oil drilling, production and refining occurs, so transportation costs are higher. And environmental programs in this region add to the cost of production, storage and distribution.
| Rank | Region | Price on 7/2/2024 |
| 1 | California | $4.79 |
| 2 | Hawaii | $4.70 |
| 3 | Washington | $4.31 |
| 4 | Oregon | $4.05 |
| 5 | Nevada | $4.04 |
| 6 | Alaska | $3.90 |
| 7 | Illinois | $3.83 |
| 8 | District of Columbia | $3.67 |
| 9 | Pennsylvania | $3.65 |
| 10 | Michigan | $3.64 |
As mentioned above, California has the most expensive gas in the country for the 18th week in a row. Hawaii, Washington, Oregon, Nevada, and Alaska round out the top six. Arizona falls out of the top 10 this week, dropping from 10th to 15th. Oregon is fourth most expensive for the seventh week in a row.
All seven states in the West Coast region are seeing small week-over-week declines: Arizona (-3 cents), Oregon (-3 cents), California (-3 cents), Nevada (-2 cents), Washington (-2 cents), Alaska (-1 cent), and Hawaii (-1 cent).
The refinery utilization rate on the West Coast decreased from 91.0% to 87.9% for the week ending June 21. This rate has ranged between about 74% to 97% in the last year. The latest national refinery utilization rate decreased from 93.5% to 92.2%. The refinery utilization rate measures how much crude oil refineries are processing as a percentage of their maximum capacity. A low or declining rate can put upward pressure on pump prices, while a high or rising rate can put downward pressure on pump prices.
According to EIA’s latest weekly report, total gas stocks in the region rose from 30.40 million bbl. to 31.98 million bbl.
A decrease in the refinery utilization rate and/or a low rate can put upward pressure on pump prices, and a increase in gasoline stocks can put downward pressure on pump prices.
Oil market dynamics
Crude oil prices today are at their highest prices since April on expectations of growing demand for fuel this summer, concerns that Hurricane Beryl could impact crude drilling and production in the Gulf of Mexico, and fears of a wider conflict in the Middle East, especially between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Crude prices have been above $80 per barrel since June 17. The EIA reports that crude oil inventories increased by 3.6 million barrels from the previous week. At 460.7 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are just 2% below the five-year average for this time of year.
At the close of Friday’s formal trading session, WTI lost 20 cents to settle at $81.54. At the close of Monday’s formal trading session, WTI jumped $1.84 to settle at $83.38. Today crude is trading around $84 compared to $81 a week ago. Crude prices are about $13 more than a year ago.
Drivers can find current gas prices along their route with the free AAA Mobile app for iPhone, iPad and Android. The app can also be used to map a route, find discounts, book a hotel and access AAA roadside assistance. Learn more at AAA.com/mobile.
Diesel
For the week, the national average adds two cents to $3.82 a gallon. The record high is $5.816 set on June 19, 2022. The Oregon average remains at $4.09. The record high is $6.47 set on July 3, 2022. A year ago the national average for diesel was $3.85 and the Oregon average was $4.44.
Find current fuel prices at GasPrices.AAA.com.
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Fuel prices are updated daily at AAA’s Daily Fuel Gauge at AAA Gas Prices. For more info go www.AAA.com. AAA Oregon/Idaho provides more than 900,000 members with travel, insurance, financial and automotive-related services, and is an affiliate of AAA National, serving more than 64 million motorists in North America.