BOISE – A new study by the AAA Foundation for Traffic Safety spotlights the devastating effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the nation’s roadways.

Researchers found that from May 2020 through December 2022, nearly 115,000 people were killed in traffic crashes nationwide, about 17% more than would have been expected if the pandemic had not occurred.  In a shocking turn of events, the increase in vehicle occupant deaths was almost entirely among those not wearing a seat belt.

“Impaired driving, speeding, and not wearing a seat belt all contributed to a surge in crash fatalities, and these issues have lingered after the pandemic ended,” says AAA Idaho public affairs director Matthew Conde.  “We’ve got our work cut out for us if we’re going to turn this thing around.”

AAA researchers used pre-pandemic crash data to build a model that predicted traffic deaths under normal conditions, then compared it with spikes during the pandemic.  Data was analyzed for three time periods: May-December 2020, the year 2021, and the year 2022.

Key results – traffic deaths during the pandemic

  • There were 43,230 crash deaths in 2021, the most in any year since 2005
  • Traffic deaths outpaced the forecast for drivers ages 16-55 by as much as 20%, with the youngest drivers involved in the most fatalities
  • Black and Hispanic Americans saw the largest increases in traffic deaths.  Black Americans represent 12% of the U.S. population, but accounted for 34% of the rise in traffic deaths relative to what would have been expected without the pandemic
  • The increased number of traffic deaths during the pandemic for people with no education beyond high school was four times greater than for college graduates
  • The percentage increase of men killed in crashes was significantly higher than women
  • On average, the number of unbelted vehicle occupants was 20% higher than the model, compared with a 3% rise above expected levels for those who were wearing a seat belt
  • Bicyclist and pedestrian fatalities were much higher during the pandemic than in recent pre-pandemic years, but increases were smaller as a percentage because the model already reflected the significant rise in pedestrian and cyclist deaths that has been taking place for the past several years

“The pandemic produced a seemingly endless supply of shocking statistics,” Conde said.  “The number of fatal crashes that involved speeding exceeded expectations by 24-28% in all three time periods.  The number of drivers without valid licenses also soared, perhaps because law enforcement had fewer interactions with the public for a period of time.”

AAA also found that drivers with a .08 blood alcohol concentration or above had the highest percentage increase above forecasted numbers if the pandemic had not occurred, compared with drivers below .08 or those who had not consumed alcohol at all.

Traffic fatalities increased from 26% to 41% on urban Interstate highways for the three time periods.

“We need a holistic solution that can encompass the contributions of every concerned group and citizen.  The Safe System approach does exactly that,” Conde said.  “It accounts for road design, vehicle safety, appropriate speeds, safe drivers, and much more.  By acknowledging that humans are vulnerable and make mistakes, and by building plenty of redundancy into the system, we can eventually achieve our goal of driving fatal crashes and serious injuries down to zero.”